The Mirage

I've been chuckling lately at the insistence that 75 million Americans are about to engage in an armed insurrection against the government and install Trump as 'Dictator of Life.'  Any conservative pushing this Stephen Miller fan fiction is a nut, but not just because they're at the point of embracing the destruction of western Democracy for Trump, but because they actually think all of his supporters are ready to take up arms and begin Civil War 2.

Before I get going, we have to be honest about the number of votes Trump got.  He only got 74,222,960, over 7 million less than Joe Biden.  You can't just round up 780,000.  If you're going to round that number, you'd round it DOWN to 74 million.

How many of that 74 million is ready to take up arms and start shooting at any Democrat they see?  One thing is for sure, it's not even close to 74 million. 

I know I'm about to paint with a wide brush, and a good chunk of this is pure speculation, but there's a real big difference between politically supporting a candidate for President and that same person actually murdering people they disagree with politically.  I do understand there are going to be exceptions for every one of these hypotheses, but I feel pretty confident we can whittle away large chunks of your 'Trump Army.'

First off, wealthy people aren't going to fight.  The super wealthy would never jeopardize their wealth for (what will be) a grossly outnumbered group of far right thugs.  A few might secretly bankroll a treasonous army, but for the most part wealthy people are not fools.  They like America just the way it is.

What would be the break point for what you consider wealthy?  I think any household making $200,000 a year or more would make a good break point.  Factoring in some numbers from Statista (on household income in America, realizing this would probably include both adults in most two person households) and the New York Times (on who exactly voted for whom in 2020), that's going to be somewhere around 10 million of your voting base who likely will sit out your insurrection.  74 million - 10 million = 64 million.

Then comes the middle class and lower income suburban voter.  Little over half the people who voted in 2020 came from the suburbs, with Biden holding a slight lead over Trump 50 to 48.  Still that would translate to 35 and a half million Trump voters. Many of these people live and work in the cities where their suburbs are located. Their kids go to school there and the parents are part of the PTO's/PTA's.  They volunteer, shop, eat and go to church there.  And now you're saying all of them, including the more moderate Republicans who voted for Trump out of a long strained party loyalty, are going to pick up a gun and start blasting their neighbors away? 

Sure some might, but those kooks will be the rare exception.  These people have good jobs, jobs they'll lose if they start killing co-workers.  Suburban dwellers might like to go to a cabin or go camping a few weeks every year, but they're not likely to abandon everything they've worked so hard to earn and head into rural American to join a deplorable hillbilly brigade.  If they're going to fight for Trump, they'll have to do that!  They won't be able to anonymously spring attacks on their neighbors and then just go back to mowing their  lawns.  They won't be able to put down a successful military strike on the local Democratic politician's office and then be done by 5 so they can be a junior's Legion Baseball game.

So how many of the 35,500,000 suburban Trump voters, minus the already deducted wealthy, will be on the front lines of the new war?  At most, AT MOST, 5 million, and that's being generous. 64 million - 30,500,000 = 33,500,000.

The next numbers would surprise you.  Trump got more voters from the inner cities than the rural parts of America.  Cities of 50K or more in population counted for 29% of the vote, of which 38% (17 million) went for Trump.  Small cities and rural America was 19% of the vote, which 57% (16.5 million) went for Trump.  Focusing on the cities, I have zero doubt a small handful of Trump supporters would try to lash out at the masses, but they would quickly be killed.  Any inner city Trump voter who wanted to partake in a war against the country would have to leave everything behind too.  If they got 1 million to leave their inner cities and go fight, I'd be surprised, but for arguments sake, I'll give them 2 million of the 17 million from cities.  33,500,000 - 15 million = 18,500,000

But here comes Trump's bread and butter!  A lot of the 16.5 million rural Trump voters would eagerly sign up to serve in the Trump Army.  Mind you most of them would be terrified of even going into the suburbs to fight, but they'd get their uniform and walk back and forth in some field claiming they were on the front lines.  Some rural Trump voters won't have the stomach for gunning down their neighbors in the streets, but I'll be generous. Only 2.5 million of the 16.5 million rural voters will say no.  18,500,000 - 2,500,000 = 16 million.

Now we are getting to a FAR more realistic number.  Granted we have not factored in the 80 year olds who voted for Trump, who clearly wouldn't be able to fight, but we also haven't factored in the children under 18 who will be encouraged to kill liberals by their parents, as well as the anti-voting extremists who would quickly come out with their guns.  Factoring in both, I'll give (generously, and I do mean GENEROUSLY, I'm downplaying the elderly vote for Trump and upselling the 17 and younger/militia types) the Trump Army an additional 2 million.

16 million + 2 million = 18,000,000

Eighteen million! That's the number of soldiers in the Trump fighting force ready to take to the streets.

18 million...in a country of 331 million. 5.4% of the country verses the other 94.6%.  GOOD LUCK!

And that's not even factoring in the huge problem of the police and the military.  I know the Trump army has convinced themselves law enforcement and the armed forces will turn on America and join them, but they're going to be in for a very rude awakening when most officers and soldiers stay loyal to the USA.  It will be a hoot to watch a bunch of weekend warriors with limited training and skills get destroyed by the 10th Mountain Division!  Sure Trump's Army might try for some terrorist strikes, truck bombs and drive by shootings, but our special forces units will quickly take them out.  Do you know how many cameras there are watching everything?  There's no way the Trump army conducts a strike on a major city and then gets back 50 miles into rural America without getting lit up.  And I'm sure with the US' tracking systems any safe houses in the metro areas will quickly be leveled too.  The US government will shut down the roads to Trump strongholds, and wait them out like Vicksburg.  It will not be pretty.

Plus you have to look at the structure of the Trump army as an organization.  I can already tell you many of the Trump faithful will want to be a leader not a follower, and they'll insist on leading from behind, staying back in relative safety as they send others to go do the dirty work.  I would guess only half of the Trump army would be willing to be on the front lines.  

The idea of going to war is great when it's in you imagination, but it's a different story when reality sinks in. Bob was a middle manager at a Forbes 500 country who loved Trump for his racists comments and was furious Trump didn't win.  Bob killed four people in his neighborhood, loaded up his car and then headed out rural farm country.  When they told him he needed to be a front line solder, Bob was incredulous!  I've been mid level management.  I should be in charge!  

There will be too many chefs in the Trump army kitchen.

And how exactly are you going to coordinate this military fighting force. Eighteen million sounds like a lot but they will be stretched thin across most of the country.  There will be large contingents in Republican stronghold areas like Mississippi, Wyoming and western Texas, but they will be spread a lot thinner in places like Maine, California and Minnesota.  How exactly are you going to move a massive military force across the country without being noticed and napalmed?  Also, how exactly are you going to communicate?  Phone lines, both cellular and land line, will be monitored, as will short wave radios (how many people even have a short wave radio or access to one, especially one they can broadcast on). The internet?  Considering the insane stupidity of the January 6th terrorists, who posted their crimes for everyone to see, these fools would be talking directly to the US military and they wouldn't even know it. 

End result, there's no way they would be able to coordinate their maneuvers.  The only thing they could do is a series of fractured regional terrorist campaigns, but, once again, attempting to get to their targets and back to their home bases would be suicide missions.

I won't go into the supplying of this fighting force.  I can already tell you they would run out of provisions and ammunition in fairly short time, but there's one lingering question.  What happens when Trump either dies or leaves the country because of the never ending lawsuits?  I'm not wishing Trump dead, but rather just asking what the Trump Army's chain of command hierarchy is.  I don't think Pence is next in command, but no one else, not Roger Stone, Rudy Giuliani, or even a Trump kid would resonate like Trump himself.  He's an old man who eats a lot of fast food.  You'd better get this insurrection in gear because you are on the clock.

Seriously, try it.  I'll enjoy watching the military annihilate you.  I'll enjoy your towns and communities being occupied.  I'll enjoy you having whomever on your side survives paying restitution to the rest of us for your high crimes and misdemeanors.  And most of all, I'll drink up you far right stooges having your mirage disappear and reality smack you in the faces like like a 2 X 4.  It will be a delicious wine, flowing freely. 

Like I said, Good luck!