The Raucous Caucus

Tuesday night was fun, and damn interesting.  Here are some thoughts on Minnesota Caucus Night, 2016.

Minnesota might be the most liberal state in the nation! - I don't think the Minnesota Democratic leftwards lean is a surprise to anyone, but how far the state leans to the left is startling.  Of course Bernie Sanders fans should be jubilant, as he broke 60% in the final Democratic tally, trouncing Hillary Clinton, who's been trying to convince America she's far more progressive than she really is, but it was the Republicans and their resounding victory for Marco Rubio which was the real shocker.  For the record, all three GOP "front-runners" are far right extremists, but the least far right extremist-y of them all is Rubio, a candidate who was soundly rejected on Tuesday by most of the country.  Not in Minny.  He wins, showing us regardless of how hard MNGOP head Keith Downey, Speaker Kurt Daudt and the rest of their ranks try to emulate the GOP of the deep south, they're really in charge of one of the last bastions of unpredictable Republicans left in the country.  Putting the two results together, and Minnesota is a lefty bastion.

The nomination process, having states with differing primaries and caucuses, is a good thing. - Would Sanders win so convincingly if Minnesota had a winner take all primary?  Not only would I say no, I think Clinton might've won the state with an all day primary.  Caucuses are designed like a political block party, rewarding the most loyal and fervent supporters of the individual candidates, while embracing a healthy dose of populism politics.  I love the feeling of sitting in the individual precincts and voting on resolutions for the party platform, something which does work.  The Peace Corps came out of a caucus site in Ely, Minnesota long ago.  These resolutions DO matter, but it's the way the voting for the nomination goes which is really different.  There is no all day, 10 AM to 8 PM, voting structure, which opens the door for larger participation.  It's only about 60 to 90 minutes of in-person voting, ensuring the majority of those caucusing are the most passionate followers.  Some people have insisted we need to scrap the caucuses and go to a straight winner take all primary.  How boring.  I love the messiness of Democracy and how caucuses almost always favor the underdog, delivering unpredictable results.  How you play to the core base should matter during an election.

What the heck are Minnesota Republicans actually doing? - The fact Rubio is the winner in Minnesota really raises some eyebrows.  He was getting throttled nationally, with his only decent showing in Virginia.  The national media and GOP party bosses were already writing his epitaph, when Minnesota happened.  The win in MN isn't going to help Rubio, in any capacity, as national GOP watchers are updating their graphics to go from 'never winning a state,' to 'only winning one state.'  Minnesota was a pity win, so this victory is one of three things.  Either the MNGOP is woefully out of touch with the national GOP, something which is backed up with their previous 'all in' on Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a candidate who managed money so poorly, he was broke before the primary season started (good luck Wisconsin!).  It could be the MNGOP remembers our own dalliance with a non-politician candidate, former Governor Jesse Ventura.  Jesse was likable, but made some real stupid decisions during his tenure.  Ventura seems like seasoned pro next to Donald Trump.  It also could be the MNGOP is the last bastion of moderate Republicans, who don't contain a large percentage of racists.  Considering the mentality of their constituents in the most Republican parts of the state, (St. Cloud, where Muslims are accosted on the street, Nazi graffiti is common, and license plates are issued spelling out racist mantras), and the fact their own office holders have an undeniable racist slant (Rep. Newberger's racist comments on the MN House floor, and Daudt's limp response), I think they're plenty racist.  My guess is, in their desperate attempt to make themselves far more relevant than they really are, the MNGOP supported Rubio, hoping the broken down mule would magically transform into a magnificent stallion.  NOPE!

Bernie Sanders has had some nice wins, but his path to the White House is losing detours fast! - This is not about raining on Sanders' win in Minnesota.  It was a very solid victory, but what we saw him win on Tuesday (Vermont, his home state, two caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, and a primary in Oklahoma) gets him a good speaking position at the convention, and that's about it.  I've heard from numerous Sanders supporters who've said "but Massachusetts was so close, it really was a tie!"  No it wasn't, Hillary won the northern liberal state primary by near 20,000 votes, and with that victory, shot down a lot of paths for Sanders to pull the upset.  I've had numerous Sanders supporters say, "so Hillary won southern states, which vote Republican in the general election, so they don't really matter."  Yes, they do matter.  Regardless of how a state votes in a presidential election, there are still local Democratic Parties which control city councils, county commission positions, and even state houses, senates and governorships.  Unlike the GOP, the Democrats value all states, not just the ones which vote with them every four years.  Eight months ago, I was saying Sanders had to embrace the Howard Dean 50 State strategy, and figure out a way to win non-traditional Democratic states.  So far, he only has Oklahoma in his column.  On March 5th, Kansas and Nebraska have caucuses, which will bode well for him, and Louisiana has a primary.  On March 6th, the Maine caucus should go his way.  On March 8th, he has an uphill battle in both the primaries in Mississippi, and in Michigan, a state which he HAS to win to catch up.  Then on March 15th, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio will decide the race, and in three of those states, Clinton has a large lead.  He needs three wins in those states to even have a chance, and that's after sweeping the events leading up to the 15th.  This isn't about raining on anyone's parade; it's simple observation.  Bernie is trailing Hillary.  Massachusetts hurt Bernie.

Donald Tump is all but assured the GOP nomination. - Well baring a well liked Republican (McCain, Romney) from jumping in at the last second, this race is over.  Ted Cruz, the current 2nd place Republican, has very little appeal outside of the states he's already won.  Rubio won't even win his home state of Florida.  Nope, Trump will win, and as scary as that is, I'm not too concerned.  Both Hilary and Bernie will destroy him in the general election, and with his lack of support from the GOP financial base, he won't have the never ending fountain of cash the past GOP nominees have had.  Most of that money will be directed to Senate races, Houses races and states where the GOP has to convince the voters they can vote Republican for everything but the presidency (YIKES!).  The worst part for the GOP is how Ted Cruz will likely take his 2nd place finish as a mandate to run again in 2020, dooming the party for yet another election cycle.  In 2000, Karl Rove and Dick Cheney welcomed the loony fringe of far right America into the GOP fold.  That doomed the party.  The racists, bigots, religious extremists and incredibly stupid now control the Republican nomination process.  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!  Good luck with that!