North Dakota went for Sanders, Idaho went to Biden and we are still waiting on Washington, but putting together the returns from the 10th, along with the results from last Super Tuesday and the path for Sanders becomes clear; he HAS TO win pretty much every remaining state by 10 to 15 points in order to catch up. Looking at next Tuesday and the four major primaries on the table (Ohio, Florida, Illinois, and Arizona) the best Bernie chance is Ohio, where he is polling at a 1 in 12 chance to win. That's his BEST chance for a win next Tuesday. He has less than a 1% chance of winning Florida. It's not impossible but there's no hint of how he's planning on turning around these numbers.
The question can now be asked, how did Bernie's campaign sputter after being so strong in 2016? Are elements of the Democratic Party against him? Undeniably, but no one is claiming the votes were illegitimate (well no one who isn't a rabid Sanders fan). It's too easy to say the fix was in, so I'm going to look at the other problems in the Bernie campaign. Bernie, once again, hurt himself. Here's my perspective:
1) 2016 was a different election. A lot of rural and blue collar Democrats were uneasy with Hillary Clinton as the candidate in 2016. With the Primary/Caucus process, they could vote against her while still supporting the eventual nominee. Bernie was the only candidate running against her, so him being the other option at the buffet helped. Last time, he won Michigan, plus a lot of other states, and took the nomination process into June.
This time around, he was one of four candidates initially appealing to the far left of the party. He initially fought through that clutter, while the bulk of the remaining candidates all inhabited the middle and moderate side of the Democratic party. He won New Hampshire and Nevada, but the other shoe was eventually going to drop. When Biden won in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, the rest of the moderate field left, and the majority of the party coalesced around Biden. Sanders was definitely hurt by not having one polarizing candidate to campaign against, and from the large candidate field not giving him a cleaner path to the nomination.
(Good time to remind everyone, Hillary Clinton won three million more votes than Trump.)
2) The Bernie campaign encouraging Hillary Hatred in 2020. On January 31st, at a rally for Bernie Sanders in Iowa, Rep. Rashida Tlaib encouraged the crowd to boo Hillary Clinton. Clinton, WHO IS NOT RUNNING IN 2020(!), had been offering her personal, less than flattering, opinion on Sanders. When the moderator at the Sanders rally brought up her comments, the crowd started to boo. The moderator tried to stop the booing, but then Tlaib stepped in. "No, no. I'll boo. BOOOOOOOO! You all know, I can't be quiet. No, we're going to boo."
The booing was followed by an influx of social media posts from Bernie supporters trying to validate the booing. This was not the first time Hillary's name had come up with Bernie supporters, as their platform's first pitch this election cycle boiled down to "You idiots were fools for supporting Hillary in 2016, and we're going to insult you until you submit to Bernie in 2020!"
This was bad. It did not matter that Hillary Clinton commented first. Here were Bernie supporters booing the still liked candidate from 2016. I made the comment you attract more bees with honey than with vinegar, only to get shouted down myself. When the moderate Democratic field started to thin, Clinton supporters EAGERLY looked for a non-Bernie candidate to solidify behind. Biden was the easy choice for Hillary supporters, leaving the angry Bernie base to ask "why isn't everyone excited for Bernie's coronation?"
Bernie supporters, ask yourself this question: "Did Hillary play you? Did she know someone from the campaign would lash out at her after her comments, knowing it would drive her supporters away from Sanders?" She set the trap and you walked into it.
3) The stunning repeat of 2016 in the South Eastern US for Bernie. I've said it a few thousand times; Bernie lost in 2016 because he got beaten BADLY in the South Eastern US primaries. HE DID! His poor showing in the South Eastern US in 2016 was the difference in winning, NOT the super delegates.
One would think after 2016, Sander's would've immediately increased his presence in the South East, opening offices and outreach programs throughout the south. You'd think his entire campaign would be to focus on South Carolina, using that to help him on Super Tuesday, placing him in the drivers seat for the 2020 nomination.
NOPE! He seems to have, inexplicably, overlooked the South Eastern US again! After Nevada, I thought maybe Bernie would pull this out, but after South Carolina, I went over the numbers and was in disbelief. How did he do so badly again? I didn't think Super Tuesday would go as well as it did for Biden, but I knew after SC it wasn't going to go well for Sanders. That was an tactical error Bernie committed TWICE!
4) Bernie did a REALLY bad job at convincing African Americans he was a good choice for them. I really think many of Sanders' positions would make life better for all Americans, including the black population, so it was stunning to see how few votes Bernie got on the 10th from African Americans. He had spent some time in the South over the last few years at commemorations of major events of significance to the African American community, but it did not translate to African American votes this election cycle. Over the last few weeks, there's been criticism of Bernie skipping events of importance to the African American population, like the Bloody Sunday March in Selma. He also cancelled a rally in Jackson after he got beaten in South Carolina. That didn't rest well.
Research from Sacramento State's Black Voter Project has shown African Americans prioritize their racial identity, so 'an even tide raises all boats' message, with a clear implication that did include African Americans as well, failed to resonate. And many political experts feel as if Reverend Jesse Jackson's endorsement came too late to help his numbers in the African American community. Regardless, the African American vote did not go for Bernie, again.
5) Bernie should not have touted Joe Rogan. Another reason Sanders might not have captured the Black vote was his embracing of Joe Rogan, a popular talk show host with a history of racist, homophobic and transphobic comments. In January, Bernie bragged about an endorsement from Rogan, leading to many people on the left questioning why he would do so. It alienated the minority vote, the gay vote, the transgender vote and the votes of people who support all of those individual groups.
Plus it gave the vague term 'Bernie Bros.' a tangible visual which was toxic to his campaign. Almost immediately after Bernie bragged about Rogan's endorsement, Biden tweeted out "there is no room for compromise when it comes to basic human rights." Sander's camp tried to distance themselves from Rogan's bad elements while still insisting they "shared a big tent." Good luck with balancing on that beam.
6) He praised Fidel Castro. In case you missed it, Sanders on 60 Minutes said he opposed the Castro regime's "authoritarian nature." GREAT and say nothing else and we're good to...uh oh...
"But you know, it's unfair to simply say everything is bad. When Fidel Castro came to office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing even though Castro did it?"
W T F!!! I don't care if he gave everyone ice cream on Friday. He's still a horrible authoritarian whose regime has political dissidents imprisoned. Southern Florida has a lot of Cubans who have been exiled from Cuba because of Castro, many of whom are Republicans, many of whom immediately destroyed the easy to destroy Castro comments. That was just DUMB!
I heard from Bernie fans immediately "You have to put what Bernie said in context." There is an old adage in politics; if you have to put things "into context" to explain them, you've already lost. I understood what he was trying to say, but it sure doesn't excuse what he did say. Don't praise Castro!
This one line from one interview would've been Trump's entire campaign against Bernie in 2020, AND IT WOULD'VE WORKED!
Sanders makes a lot of Democrats uneasy. Not only is there real concern by Democrats about whether Bernie would do what it takes to help ALL Democrats win US House seats, US Senate seats and state legislative races, but he makes a lot of Democrats uncomfortable because he embraces a much more Socialist platform than many Democrats are comfortable with. Having him openly praise Communist dictators was the final straw for a lot of Democrats. I had Democrats in the MN-02 and 03 districts tell me they were convinced Bernie as the Presidential candidate would cost them Angie Craig and Dean Phillips, and I can't argue with them. Not only would a lot of Democrats have an incredibly hard time endorsing a Castro praising Bernie in their moderate districts, but I just can't see Bernie campaigning for moderate Democrats. "I've called this person part of the problem, but now I need them, so I guess they're not all that bad, so maybe, unless there's a far more progressive candidate in the race, you should think about possibly voting for them."
7) Young voters don't vote. Bernie Sanders is a God with young voters, but they didn't show up to the polls. Outside of Iowa, young voters showed up in fewer numbers than in 2016. Young voters work great when it's something like Sunday Liquor Sales. They go protest, yell at politicians, make creative signs and are fantastic at starting social media memes. They were able to convince politicians to change Minnesota's puritan liquor laws in a relatively short amount of time. But would they have changed the rules if they were required to go vote to change the rules? Probably not. Young voters are great for photo shoots and visuals, and they can chant and protest with the best of them, but requiring them to go to a ballot box is a bridge too far.
Young voters think a Tik Tok video or a Twitter post is doing something. That's why they're content at not voting.
There you go; a complete rundown of why Bernie Sanders is getting beat that doesn't include a Star Chamber conspiracy theory. Then again, it's not over. Bernie could pull off the massive upset and go onto the Presidential race. If he does, his supporters need to find solutions to all of these points, because he will not beat Trump with this much baggage.
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