US House - The US House of Representatives went back to the Democrats. It's looking like the final total will be somewhere around a 225 to 228 seat majority. To achieve this, the Democrats had to do a frontal attack on an election system which has been unbelievably manipulated against them. Inexcusable gerrymandering, a massive money and media advantage, rigged voting rules and purged voter databases made what they accomplished almost impossible. The final advantage for the Democrats was a national popular vote margin of 9.2%. How impressive is 9.2%? In 2010, when Republicans bragged for two years how they had a mandate from the American people to screw this country up, their margin of victory was only 7.2%. The Contract with America uprising in 1994 was only 7.1%. The only time in the last 25 years we've had a stronger advantage by an individual party was when the Democrats dominated in 2008, with a 10.6%.
That's what makes this US House win even more amazing. In 2008, we were in an economy which was imploding, and stuck in a war many Americans wanted to be over. In 2018, the economy is doing very well, and our military deployments are mostly ignored. This massive Democratic Party advantage is simply Americans repudiating Trump.
If this was a fair election process, the Democrats would be looking at a rout more like 1930 or 1932. The Republicans, through their fixed system, were able to stop the bleeding, but not before they had to concede the losses. Although I would've loved to see a majority closer to 235-240, at least we'll now have some level of oversight of what is clearly the most corrupt 'leader' in US History.
I also still think there is a legit chance Trump, out of fear the Democrats will get access to his tax returns, will resign his office right before the new year, making a deal with the outgoing Republican majority to keep his tax returns private for eternity.
Minnesota's Senators and the US Senate - Both Minnesota's Senators are Democrats, as Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith both won re-election. While Amy's competition was a laughing stock, Tina did have a little more of a challenge in Karin Housley. Then Karin decided to feature her husband, former NHL player Phil, in a campaign ad, and she never recovered from the optics of it. Amy and Tina will have a less friendly Senate to return to, as the Republicans bucked the mid-term trend and won seats in the Senate in 2018. That wasn't so much on Republican popularity, as Democratic Senate candidates had a 12 point overall lead in the national popular vote but still lost 3 seats. This was partially the rigged system, but it was also the aftermath of a massive Senate victory for the Democrats in 2012, President Obama's re-election year. There were just too many seats for the Democrats to feasibly hold in a crooked system created by the Republicans.
Minnesota Governor and the Minnesota statewide races - We say goodbye to a great governor in Mark Dayton by welcoming in a well qualified Tim Walz, the former MN-01 House Rep who will take over the Governor's mansion. The governor's race wasn't really in question as the Republican candidate Jeff Johnson made a glass of skim milk look exciting. This was an relatively easy layup of a victory, an 11% win. If the MNGOP would've stayed with Tim Pawlenty, my guess is it would've been closer, but still a Walz win.
Two of the other statewide races were a little closer for the Democrats. Steve Simon won another term as Secretary of State by 9 points, and Julie Blaha won the State Auditor position by 6. Usually these race differentials would match the governor's race margins, so there's a question of how many Republicans disliked Johnson as the MNGOP Governor nominee?
Minnesota Attorney General - Keith Ellison, the former Rep from MN-05, won the Attorney General position over Republican Doug Wardlow. We all know the race featured two flawed candidates. This is something I won't revisit here, but you can read about it at this link: https://progressivecitizenx.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-friday-link-for-11218.html?fbclid=IwAR2PMxaUsgCx72a61Y-wjE_DjBCnUwfC5xU9MIge5ErLt8dfZ1FME3ryd50
The reason the Republicans lost this race is due to their flawed selection process. When they saw Keith Ellison was likely going to be the DFL nominee, they mistakenly interpreted the race as an easy win. They thought all they had to do was run a campaign screaming "Beware the Black Muslim Man!" and the voters would flock to anyone they put the 'R' next to. They decided to go with the far right extreme candidate in Wardlow. If the MNGOP would've gone with someone like Johnson or Housley, they probably would've won, but when Wardlow's true nature started getting exposed, it negated the Right's fear mongering. Because they went with an extreme zealot, they lost.
MN-02 and MN-03 - Finally, two of the most worthless Republicans I've ever seen, Representatives Jason Lewis and Erik Paulsen, lost. Lewis should've never won in 2016, but because he kept his past misogynistic and bigoted radio show comments hidden from voters, and because a third party candidate pulled just enough of the vote away from the Democrat, he got one term in the US House. He's gone now, as Angie Craig won the rematch of the 2016 race. Erik Paulsen's lack of a real record, and an unnatural fear of talking to his constituents, met it's match in Dean Phillips, an outstanding Democrat who took the MN-03 seat by 11%. Paulsen was like a lot of Republicans who were undone by their health care votes; tied to his constant repeal of the Affordable Care Act while not having a replacement plan ready to go. It becomes hard to convince people you really have a health care plan when you haven't produced one in 8 years.
Minnesota House - This was the best caboose kicking by the Democrats of the night, as a whopping 18 seats flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats. The Republicans lost pretty much every suburban Twin Cities metro seat they had, even in outlying wealthy suburbs which they thought offered protection. The Republicans were undone by a few things, starting with an exceptional slate of Minnesota DFL candidates, many of whom were furious with the broken Republican version of government.
Outgoing Speaker Kurt Daudt miscalculated on two initiatives. First, his lack of any mass transit funding for the 16th largest metro area in the country left a bad taste in the mouth of many suburbanites, many who have to tackle hour long, one way commutes to get to work. Secondly, the Omnibus Prime bill was a massive mistake. Last session, there were a lot of popular stand alone bills with bi-partisan support the Governor was willing to sign. Instead, Daudt threw them all into one massive, un-Constitutional 1000 page monster bill (Omnibus Prime), a blatant effort to use the popular bi-partisan items to get his extreme partisan agenda items passed. What he did with Omnibus Prime was the epitome of bad government, something which in turn united many voters against the MNGOP.
Daudt's funny. His greatest nemesis has been Mark Dayton, a governor who's brilliantly counter punched the Speaker at every turn, over and over again. Just when Daudt thinks he's going to be able to get rid of Dayton, he loses the Speakership. He's now subject to the will of incoming Speaker Melissa Hortman. Paraphrasing Goodfellas, "grab your Shinebox Kurt." Dayton gets one more laugh as he leaves office, at your expense.
There were three less than ideal outcomes for the Democrats on Election night in Minnesota. The MN-01 and MN-08 seats both flipped to the Republicans. MN-01 was a Republican district held by Tim Walz, so that was always going to be a tough hold, (although it was a very tight race). Trump basically bought MN-08 with his steel tariff strategy, with the Iron Range being one of the few areas of the country which benefits from his asinine trade policy. Also, the Minnesota Senate will stay in the hands of the MNGOP, as the special election in MN-13 saw a Republican victory. The right spent so much money on that race, with near daily visits from recognizable Republicans, they were begging the voters to keep the district Republican. Regardless, the Senate still has to work with a Democratic Governor and House.
I've heard some Democrats bemoan the loss of some of the high profile stand alone races, namely the Senate race in Texas, the Governor's race in Georgia, and the Governor's race in Florida. To them I say "STOP IT!" Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the Democrats sweep the table, but considering what the Democrats accomplished on Tuesday, I'll take those losses. Too many years, we've lost the war, trying to hang our pride on one or two individual races to make ourselves feel better. I'd much rather have won the US House this time around, as a single senator or a state governor can't hold Trump accountable. Plus the governor races in Wisconsin and Kansas were pretty spectacular GOP meltdowns, so there's your gravy!
Democrats, enjoy this. Take the rest of the week, and then get ready to begin again on Monday! If we don't take back the White House, the Senate and the majority of state Legislatures in 2020, we'll have another ten years of this crap.
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