I'm going to try to dissect what the heck happened to the Twins this season, what has been their long term problem, and how do the Twins fix it. I will freely admit many will disagree with me, but I stand by my theories.
Let's start with this season. For me, it comes down to a lack of preparedness. In an incredible display of incompetence, the team was 15-36 by Memorial Day. They'd won only 15 of their first 51 games, and were officially out of contention before June, the earliest I've ever seen a team eliminated. The Twins didn't come into the season ready to play. They were out of shape, slow, inconsistent, and lacked drive. This falls on their off season management, and their off season conditioning guys; from the front office, to the coaches, to the staff. There's no excuse for this. When you dig a whole that deep, not only do you have zero chance at getting out during the season, the Twins bad April and May have actually damaged this team for seasons to come.
As I write this, the team still has 6 more games to go, and 100 loses on the season. They can't set the franchise record for loses (113 back when the team was the Washington Senators in 1904), but if they go 1-5, they'll have the most franchise loses since 1909's 110. To avoid tying the Twins' record for futility (102 in 1982), they need to go 5-1 in their final week. Smart money is on this being the worst Minnesota Twins team of all time when the final out is recorded on October 2nd.
I could probably mention their pitching too, but when you're this bad, nothing's going right on a team. Their team batting average is .251, their opponents are hitting .284. Their team pitching ERA is 2nd worst in all baseball at 5.11, and they've the second highest total of errors for the season of any team, at 125. It's hard to determine how bad this team really is, because they clearly quit very early in the season. It's pathetic.
A reminder of the title of this entry: The Twin's insisted, 'if we build them a new stadium, they'll be competitive.' What the heck would they be in the old Metrodome, a AAA franchise?
This season is part of a larger overall problem the Twins have had for fifteen years, and although I've been very critical of how the team has worshipped Joe Mauer, Mauer is only part of the problem.
But first...
Twins, you will never escape the David Ortiz mistake. NEVER! You had a top ten all time player on your roster and you so poorly mismanaged him, trying to turn a pure slugger into a singles/doubles hitter ("it's how we do it in Minnesota!") you became a laughing stock, a cautionary tale. In baseball history, the Twins and Ortiz will live on as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest, player mismanagement stories of all time. You'll never escape that. Stop trying to turn every player coming through the system who shows a flash of talent into the next Ortiz. There are so few players of that caliber, you're created an impossible standard for the developing players to achieve. You've ruined too much up and coming talent, and are in the process of ruining Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton; neither is Ortiz. Stop trying to prove everyone else is wrong about your catastrophic error; own it and move on.
The Twins love being the little team that could, but the problem with that mentality is underestimating the amount of effort it takes to turn a team with little chance into a contender. If you're not constantly giving 110%, you falter. It's what happened in 2016, and it's been a recurring problem with the team since the mid-2000s. Part of it is Mauer, and the decision by the team to focus every element of the organization around him, an effort to placate hometown fans. I've said before, they created a whole bunch of Mauer fans who happen to like the Twin's, not the other way around. Since 2012, the Mauer-centric mentality has actually damaged the team. They've forgone good talent on the rosters, made bone headed on the field position changes and placed too much importance on a single player who's not worth half the contract he gets paid.
But the hometown hero mentality goes beyond Mauer. When the Mauer-centric Twins failed, the front office looked for a scapegoat. They focused on Ron Gardenhire, one of the best managers in the league. They dismissed him, unfairly, and replaced him with another hometown hero, Paul Molitor, a nice enough guy, and a great player back in his day, but a manager who's style doesn't work at the major league level. He consistently over-manages the team in the first few innings and under-manages them in later innings. He needs to be more consistent overall, with a much bigger focus on late game situations. He, and the rest of the current coaching staff, are responsible for the lack of 110% effort and they've proven they don't deserve another chance.
What do you do to fix this mess? First, come to grips: unless the front office opens up their wallet, big time, this team is at least three seasons away from being a contender, at best. You need to fire Paul Molitor and the rest of the coaching staff, most of the training staff and a large part of the front office. You need to stop hiring people who have a hometown connection, and instead start hiring the best people for your organization. Make sure the few players you have who contribute (Dozier, Sano, Suzuki) stay on the roster, and start fresh with a combination of young talent from your minor league system, and at least six to seven proven veterans who can help direct the youth brigade.
You also have to solve the Mauer problem. He sucks at 1st base, a bottom five player in the league, at the position. I saw three games this year where due to his lack of correct positioning and understanding of the first baseman's role, he left at least five outs on the field. These weren't errors, but rather mistakes a better first baseman would've capitalized on.
With Mauer entering into the last year of his contract, the Twin's organization has the power to change things. I don't want to see Mauer gone; seeing him in a different jersey would be akin to Killebrew in Royals powder blue. Plus, I think he still adds to an overall baseball roster, but he's a cog in the machinery, not a stand alone super player. Offer to renegotiate his contract. Negate the 2017/$23 million deal, give him 6 years at 12 million a year, and load his contract up with bonuses and incentives for performance. No one else would be willing to give him anything close to that deal, so his options would be limited. Part of the contract has to be him moving from first to right field. He plays right for four seasons and then becomes a primary DH, who occasionally plays right. This would free up a lot of money to bring in talent, allow the Twins to play current roster players at their best positions, and keep their main marketing image in house. Heck, even guarantee him a coaching/managerial role in the minors after the contract expires. If he decides to leave, let him walk away, but I'd doubt he'd go. He'll be happy staying a Twin, and the team can move past the bad decisions which have gotten us to this pit of despair.
Stadiums don't get you wins and dancing, and they don't get you championships. Good management and players do. If the Twins remember that, and start giving 110% again, they might be able to make something good happen in a few years. And in 20 years, when the organization starts bellyaching about the substandard Target Field, remind them the field was never an excuse for the David Ortiz led Boston Red Sox, at the 1912 built Fenway Park.
Great analysis!! 120% correct
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