Trump is Going to Win

Here's a link to the latest GOP poll numbers, for Republican Presidential Nominee:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary#!mindate=2015-07-01&estimate=custom

If you look at those numbers, something should strike you.  It's December 2015, and the first primaries/caucuses are just around the corner.  Donald Trump is likely going to be the nominee.

Donald's polling AVERAGE is 34.4%.  That means he's only 15.6% away from 50%, which makes the rest of the discussion moot.  A fan of one of the other candidates might take umbrage with that, insisting he hasn't won anything yet.  I agree, but since this guy only seems to get stronger with the crazier messaging, I have no idea how he's going to stumble at this point.  He did flub on the abortion question a little today, so I think it's still possible he'll implode, but highly unlikely.

The question then becomes where do the voters who support the other candidates go after their preferred candidate inevitably leaves the race.  Let's start with the bottom 10.  Candidates like Gilmore, Pataki, Graham, and Kasich have supporters who will not support Trump, but two things.  First, their combined number is 3.8%, with most behind Kasich, and secondly, if Trump pulls any of them, it's gravy.

There are the traditional Republican candidates, Bush, Christie and Fiorina, whose supporters will likely shy away from Trump.  Will the 11.4% of GOP voters who support those three solidify behind only one of the other top candidates?  Unlikely.  And if Trump picks up say 2% of those Republican voters, that hurts anyone else left in the field.

Rounding out the bottom 10 are Santorum, Huckabee and Paul.  I have a hard time thinking their 4.6% of the vote would go anywhere else but either Trump or Carson (more on him in a second).  If Trump picks up half of those voters, and 2% from the traditional bottom candidates, he'll be at 38.7%, 11.3% away from the mid point.

So let's look at the top of the field.  After Trump is Rubio with 14.6%, Carson with 13.9%, and Cruz with 13.4%, all of them WAY behind Trump by 20+ points.  Most of the moderate and traditional GOP voters will coalesce behind Rubio, but that's not a lot of extra umph.  Ben Carson is heading south in the polls.  He's the biggest challenger to Trump's base, but when he does leave, I expect most of his supporters to rally around Trump.  Being generous to the other candidates, let's say Trump only gets 10 of his 13.9%.  That puts Trump at 48.7%.

Cruz has been trying to sound more like Trump lately, but I think the voters would rather take a egotistical, self serving, wealthy businessman than a slack jawed, brick dumb Texas Senator.  Trump has far more glitz and style.  When Cruz leaves the race, all Trump will need is 1.3% of his followers to put him over the top.  That makes Rubio's voters irrelevant.

My guess is you are about to see an incredible amount of money flow into the GOP race to back Rubio and Cruz, in a desperate attempt to kill off Trump's numbers by Iowa.  I don't see it.  This means, Donald Trump will likely be the Republican nominee for President.

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I think you get my point...