Why People Vote

After last night's GOP debate, I decided to quickly revisit something I'd said earlier this week.  It was in reference to Bernie Sanders' trip to Liberty University and how it was a solid political move.  I juxtaposed that with Hillary's horrible summer on the campaign trail, using the comparison as a springboard to explain the four reasons people vote for someone:

1) They like you.
2) You inspire them.
3) You are something new and different.
4) They hate the other guy you're running against.

Pretty much every voter's vote falls into one or more of these categories.  When you apply it to past elections, it shows the more of the categories a candidate falls into, the more likely they are to win the race.  In 2008, President Obama was able to garner large chunks of voters in every category, but especially in 1 and 2.  John McCain clearly had people voting for him in categories 1 and 4, but very few people voted for him because he was inspirational and no one voted for him as something new and different.

Going back to 2004, John Kerry had a lot of people voting for him due to reason 4, but he was having trouble getting anyone to like him outside of the core base Democrats.  With W. having solid 1 and 4 numbers, he took the win.  In 2012, It was Mitt Romney's turn to have that scenario play out.  There was a huge turnout for him in the 4 category, but not enough to offset President Obama's once again strong numbers in all four.

So applying the formula, what can we garner about the primary races for each party?  It still applies, although it may be harder to see the final outcome before it unfolds.

I had a front row seat for the 2000 Iowa Straw Poll.  W. was the eventual nominee because Karl Rove realized Bush was strong in categories 1 and 4 (to a point), but very weak in categories 2 and 3.  That's why Rove dramatically limited the public's exposure to W. in Iowa, keeping him out of the spotlight, making him seem new and different.  He wasn't.  He was his dad, version 2.0, but he still 'looked' different because he wasn't seen, like Bigfoot.  When he did emerge from the shadows, it was down to him and McCain, who at that time was very strong in the 2nd category.  Rove and Cheney waited until South Carolina, where they appealed to the racist element of the GOP, implying McCain had an African American child out of wedlock, a racists distortion of his adopted Bangladeshi daughter, and that he somehow, through his time as a POW, had become a sort of Manchurian Candidate.  This skyrocketed W.'s category 4, and diminished McCain's category 2, and the rest is history.

2008 was fascinating for the Democrats, because you had Hillary already appealing to her supporters in categories 1, 2 and 3, but out of nowhere came Barack Obama, who also had very high numbers in the same categories.  It took the entire primary season for everyone to realize Obama's numbers in category 3 were enough to override Clinton's numbers in category 1.

For this cycle, the GOP process is being controlled by whomever resonates in category 3.  I really don't think category 2 applies to anyone on the right (maybe Huckabee with Kim Davis followers, to a point) and even though I think Trump has a lot of people who fall into category 4 against him, those votes are sprinkled around the numerous other candidates, so it doesn't hurt him that much.  Carson, Fiorina and Trump are getting better numbers because they're 'new and different,' going beyond category 1's "who do you like" aspect of the race, so far.

The Democrats are more interesting.  Bernie Sanders is getting strong numbers in 1, 2, and 3.  Clinton is still the one to beat, but her numbers in 1 are taking a beating with her over managed campaign.  I think Joe Biden's potential could really make the election tough for both of them, as he will garner strong numbers in 1, 2, and 3.

Then again, it's September, 2015, and the Twins are still in contention.  I have other things to focus on right now.