The New Not-Normal

Last weekend was delightful.  It was warm and sunny.  My whole family spent the daylight hours outside gardening and playing, with a baseball game for my son taking place on Sunday in spectacular conditions.  There was only one slight problem; it was all wrong.  The temperature was more common for early June, not early May, and the plants and trees are all about two weeks ahead of their normal growth cycle.

This nicer weather is an ignored truth, the new not-normal.  People aren't alarmed when the temperature is supposed to be 60, but it's 75.  The temperature differential, along with extremes in precipitation and storms, are painting an undeniable picture of a changing world right before our eyes, but when the problems of climate change are separated from each other, the warming temperatures just become a pleasant respite most of the time.  Climate change isn't just warming, but the warming is the most obvious day to day symptom, and the easiest to dismiss.

Back in March of 2003, we had a two week span of very warm temperatures, with the high temps on two of those days being around 70.  That was 30 degrees warmer than it supposed to be.  No one really complained, as a matter of fact, most people reacted as though it was free sex and candy days, frantically grabbing scissors to make cut offs, as their shorts were still deeply buried in boxes, months away from being dusted off.  I myself went and walked Lake Calhoun numerous times over that stretch, watching the snow frantically melt with a smile on my face.  Every year since, we've had a stretch of late Winter/early Spring days where it is freakishly warmer than it should be.

Since April 1 of this year, most of the days have been above average temperature, and most of them were 6 or more degrees above normal.  Eleven days since April 1 have been 15 degrees or warmer than they should be.  On April 1, it was almost 40 degrees warmer than average, April 12, 23 degrees warmer, April 14, 19 degrees, May 3, 17.

On May 14th, 2013, we hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the metro area, another 30+ degree warmer than it's supposed to be day.  People hated it.  Most had just taken the winter covers off their air conditioners, not realizing they'd have to fire them up so early.  No one smiled that day.  If we had a two week stretch of 105 or higher temps in the Twin Cities in July and August, 30 degrees warmer than it should be, just like March of 03, people wouldn't be happy.  They would say, "this is wrong.  Why doesn't someone do something about it?"  But then comes 80 degrees in late September, and the stress and strain of the extreme summer heat disappears.

There's a financial impact which is ignored too.  The AC bills for a two week stretch I described would bring a level of concern to the kitchen table, but it's the larger weather related impacts we need to start seeing.  A few winters ago, we didn't have snow.  No snow in Minnesota should terrify people, but instead we went about giggling and playing, acting like it was a nice break from the normal.  Then came the consequences.  Businesses who depend on snow (ski resorts, snowmobile manufacturers, snow plows, snow blower makers) all had massive economic downturns, leading to layoffs and lost revenue.  It nearly broke some communities, AND it was due to climate change.  But wouldn't you know, a more normal snow the next year and the downturn becomes a distant memory, until the next Winter without snow.

When we have a year's worth of rain fall in a three week span, followed by extreme drought for the rest of the year, people look at the end of the year totals and shrug their shoulders saying, "it works out in the end."  Even hurricanes, one of the most destructive forces on the planet, after they scrub a large portion of a state clean, are only remembered for a limited time by the individuals it directly effects, and hardly at all by the parts of the country the storm missed.  Sandy really messed up New Jersey, but how many Republicans didn't care one iota about the massive devastation, instead only accusing Gov. Christie of being a traitor for needing Federal assistance.  Still today, there are portions of the East Coast which have not been repaired.  For a shocking amount of people, it's easy to overlook.

There's a definitive trend to the temperature fluctuations, but when you add in the bizarre precipitation variances, the super storms, the unusual weather patterns (both warmer and colder), and then factor in the financial impacts to our economy, we should all be very concerned.

Then again, maybe you should just go out and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts.  Considering Climate Change legislation has the same chances as a snowball in hell (insert Senator Inhofe joke here), it probably won't be too long before the new not-normal is impossible to enjoy.