Most midterm elections, the party of the incumbent president usually has a rough go at it. It's often that the US House and Senate will see changes in leadership and this trickles down to state elections.
2022 might be different. There are a few things playing against the Republicans, in regards to over taking the Democrats in the House and Senate. The main one is the Senate where the Democratic races are mostly safe, but Republicans are looking at uphill climbs in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (and depending on the candidate, Missouri too). And while Georgia and Arizona might look like harder seats to hold for the Dems, the truth is the candidates running for the GOP in those states are likely going to be hampered by their allegiance to the far right lunacy of the post-Trump era.
The House is the same way. If the Republican candidates for the US House represent the party of anti-vaccines, 'Trump won in 2020,' and 'the 1/6 Insurrection was an inspiration,' they're in trouble. Taking Minnesota for example; the GOP will easily hold MN 06 and MN 07, but MN 01, 02 and 08 become much easier for the Democrats to control.
Then again, Democrats can screw this up EASILY! I have seen election after election where the GOP was doomed, but here comes the Democrats bumbling the easy layup, missing the backboard completely and somehow breaking their leg in the process.
Democrats, forget the 80 page strongly worded memo most Democrats could care less about. Forget the fringe policy you have convinced yourself will win you the day. Forget banking on the 21 and under crowd you keep expecting to show up but who never do. Forget trying to win over 20 Republicans by sacrificing 90% of the Democrats platform to do so. Forget trying to convert the Democrats into the new Socialist Democratic Party. NONE of those strategies will win 2022. Instead focus on these four things, and you will destroy the Republicans.
#1 - Religion
This is the hardest one to convince Democrats to embrace, so it's why I'm starting off with it. Democrats have always been the party of Freedom of Religion. It's not that most of them are not Christian (which they are) it's just they seem to understand religion is their personal choice and everyone else is entitled to make their own choices on how their worship, IF they choose to do so.
Republicans are the opposite. They are Christianity centric, and while they begrudgingly acknowledge there is a Freedom of Religion in the US, their ranks have become more and more infiltrated with Christians who are less and less tolerant; ones who say "you can be any religion you like, as long as there's a Bible, a Christmas Tree and Easter eggs."
Republicans started down this path in the post Nixon era where they desperately needed a plan of attack. They proudly became the party of anti-abortion, bringing in Christian chants as their rallying cry. It was wildly successful, so much so modern right wing Christian churches have reverted to preaching a very stripped down version of the Bible, one that's solely about validating Republican politics, forsaking about 90% of Jesus' teachings.
This is where Democrats now have a chance at striking back with the Christians. The modern Conservative Christians hate when you remind them of the Gospels, particularly Matthew and Luke. Let me back up. The reason Christians are Christians is Jesus Christ. They believe Jesus was God on Earth and his resurrection was the beginning of the Christian faith. In the New Testament of the Bible, there are four Gospels, Matthew Mark, Luke and John. This four books of the Bible are where you hear the story of Jesus. They're full of direct commands from Jesus and...most Republicans avoid them like the plague. Sure they like the Christmas and Easter stories, but most of the rest of the Gospels is a liberal paradise; feeding the hungry, sheltering the homeless, taking care of the sick, welcoming in strangers from strange lands, anti-war, anti-weapon, and (particularly in Luke) condemnation of wealth worshipping and obscene wealth. IT'S TRUE!
Republicans will always refer to the Democrats as sinners, using Democrat's pro-choice stance against them. They accuse them for violating one of the 10 Commandments 'Thou shall not Kill!' Putting aside their hypocrisy on this one Commandment (the original text means the death penalty is a big no-no too) this is always the ONE COMMANDMENT they use to bash Democrats on abortion. And frankly, Democrats allow them!
Christianity is not like The Lord Of the Rings, where 'one sin shall rule them all.' Republicans don't even want to look at the rest of the Ten Commandments which Trump and their party violate fairly consistently (like 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, and 10, especially 7!). Republicans have erased most of the Bible to make this one sin paramount, and it's time the Democrats remind them of that.
This is not about converting anyone to Christianity, OR making this a Christian country, and you can begin your rebuttal with that exact statement, but you can quickly fire back "does your Bible have the Gospel of Matthew and Luke, direct teachings of Jesus, because your politics likes to tramples those teachings." They will get outraged, BUT YOU'RE RIGHT! They do ignore a large portion of the Bible! Throw that in their faces with as much vigor and energy as they throw their fake piety into everyone else's.
Encourage Christian Republicans to sit down and read the rest of the Bible they've forsaken. If you can make even 2% of the Christians Republicans stop and say "Hey, there are a lot direct teaching of Jesus the Republicans eagerly violate. Maybe I shouldn't so blindly vote Republican," you'll put a pretty good dent into their loyal voting block. At the very least you dismantle the false notion that Christians need to be Republicans.
I know a lot of Democrat get uneasy about challenging Republican Christian lies. Fine, but you have no excuses for not attacking them in the following three categories.
#2 - Healthcare and Vaccines
The Democrats had a lot of success with healthcare during the pre-COVID 2018 election cycle so I'm surprised they did not hammer this home far harder in 2020. If they had, they probably would've won much larger majorities in the House and Senate.
Republicans have really screwed up by leaving this issue on the table. The far right has made a party tentpole out anti-vaccine rhetoric and conspiracy theories. Somewhere along the line these fools became convinced that people not wanting them sick or dead were actually part of some liberal plot, so they've vilified everything associated with trying to stop this pandemic; medicine, nurses, doctors, face masks, social distancing, vaccinations, established and respected medical institutions. They feel as if being safe from COVID is being 'owned by the Libs!' But when one of these zealots or they family members gets sick, suddenly they're born again believers in medical science.
I wish it didn't take such drastic consequences for them to wake up. It's mind numbing some still believe the lies even after a family member dies.
Simply looking at the numbers, anti-vaccines and anti-social safety measures are a losing platform. So far over 3.5 million Minnesotans are vaccinated, in a state of 5.6 million. That's 68.2% of the entire population age 5 and older vaccinated. If the Republicans are going to continue to label anyone getting vaccinated as a loser, lemming, idiot, or misguided, they're knowingly preaching to a shrinking minority.
Even if the Republicans today, in unison, all became the biggest supporters of vaccines (something I imagine they'll try to portray once the general election campaigns begin) we still have HOURS of videos of them scoffing at basic medicine, and spewing insane conspiracies. There are also numerous Republican families who will be willing to be in ad campaigns which the following script: "My family trusted (Republican Politician) when they told us the vaccines, face masks and social distancing were a liberal conspiracy and not necessary. But now, we know they weren't being honest. Their INTENTIONAL deceptions cost us family members and have left us in crippling medical debt. I'll never trust the Republicans on health care issues EVER again." DAMN! That ad should be running statewide.
One last thing. It wouldn't hurt to revert back to 2018 and remind everyone Democrats are the party for a more comprehensive, less expensive health care system. With so many people in serious financial debt due to medical bills, the cost of medical care is a winning issue.
#3 - Day Care Costs
This is an issue which is affecting almost every parent in the state. The cost of daycare was atrocious pre-COVID, but today it's out of control. One of the main reasons people are leaving their jobs and the workforce is because it's less expensive for them to quit and stay home with their kids than it is to work a job just to sign over a paycheck to a day care provider.
Republicans are sure not about to try to make day care cheaper, and they won't offer a state funded no cost version. Their solution will likely be to offer a tax break, but only for people whose kids go to the most expensive daycares. Everyone else will get nothing.
Daycare is a tricky issue, but Democrats, don't tell us what you can't do. Tell us what you are going to do to fix this! You got a budget surplus. Use it! Send parents with young kids a $200 monthly check to help offset the costs. Explore the state contracting with a private day care provider to offer low income families a cheap (or maybe even free) option. Give targeted tax breaks to new daycare providers opening their doors, but only if they promise to keep costs affordable. And offer a tax break to ALL families with day care costs. Make their costs 100% tax deductible. The Republicans would NEVER go along with that.
This issue is a text book example of low hanging fruit. Don't be afraid to pick it!
#4 - Many of the most visible and loudest Republicans today are 100% Loonballs!
Whether it's vaccines magnetize you! Whether it's Democrats eat babies in the basement of pizza parlors! Whether it's insisting Trump was the real winner in 2020! Whether it's validating the 1/6 Insurrectionists as harmless protestors, then arguing they're all violent Antifa members! Whether it's the gun worshipping! Whether it's insisting there's no climate change! Whether it's insisting Trump was the greatest president ever! Whether it's insisting there's no Corona Virus, and then arguing the non-existent virus really was from Dr. Fauci's clone in China! Whether it's racist stereotypes and tropes agains minorities! Whether it's people waiting in Deely Plaza for weeks as they insist JFK Jr. is alive and will show himself to take a stand with Trump!
These people are nuts, and THESE are the lunatics who choose the Republican candidates. Republican politicians can't outright dismiss these drivels of insanity.
MAKE THEM PAY FOR IT! Find any video footage you can of these candidates embracing the lunatic fringe and destroy them with it. You probably can find the most damning evidence ON THEIR OWN SOCIAL MEDIA SITES! Make sure the voters see this true insanity. The voters will not vote for candidates who've embraced the Jim Jones Kool Aid as a refreshing drink.
Don't over think this. This is once again low hanging fruit. Bury them with their own actions.
The Republican's plan of attack for 2022 falls into two categories: 1) discourage Democrats by making them think Biden and all Democrats have failed, and 2) crime (which is really Republican code for 'Black people need to be reined in!').
Democratic leaders should be giving motivational speeches every single day until the election, talking about how they are on the right side of history. Praise their victories while also reminding the voters they could do so much more if they had a larger majority in the House and Senate. Every Single Day!
As far as crime, a strong Democratic crime bill which deals with car jackings would go a long way to offset the Republican narrative (and let's be honest, should a 14 year old who is a five time car thief get a 6th chance before we charge them as an adult? No.). If the DFL doesn't put forward a crime bill, they are punting that issue to the Republicans.
It doesn't mean all is lost, it just means every Democratic candidate needs to be experts at switching the topic off of car jackings and crime in the Twin Cities and pushing the spotlight back on the issues I posted above.
Republicans are all far right. You can't believe them when they insist they're a moderate who'll work with the other side. Remind voters of the new Republican Virginia Governor, a man who ran as a "uniter" and "a moderate," who immediately went far right on his first day in office. Republicans will say whatever they have to to get into office, but remind everyone if they vote Republican they're voting for a far right extremist agenda.
I have zero doubt most Democrats will ignore my advice. Maybe they'll come up with a different winning strategy. Maybe they'll get their pants handed to them in November. I'm posting this out of hope they'll realize I'm trying to help them. I'm just getting tired of seeing Democrats clear path to victory getting ignored, as they wander into the wilderness with a machete, usually ending up tragically and comically lost.
