The More Things Change...

Last night was the State Of The Union speech and many Democrats this morning were beaming.  The showing by the Democrats, especially many of the freshman women, was the main story of the evening.  By doing nothing outside of sitting with disapproving looks on their faces they controlled the room.  It was an undeniable victory for the Democrats.

Another thing happened yesterday, something with far less of a positive outcome for the Democrats, showing us the frighteningly familiar trajectory the Democrats are currently on.  In Minnesota Senate District 11 (MNSD11), there was a special election to fill a seat which the Democrats have held for decades.  Last night, the Democratic candidate lost to the Republican.  I'll be the first to admit weather did not play nice, but if this race would've happened in November, the Democrats would've won MNSD11 by 10+ points, easy.  The momentum Democrats had coming out of November 2018 is gone, replaced by a self congratulatory love fest, the same exact self-congratuslatorism which derailed the Democrats after 2008.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  Let me break down MNSD11 a little.

The MNSD11 seat became open because Governor Tim Walz appointed the Democratic Senator to a position in his Administration.  Some people have been critical of Walz choosing a Democrat who was in a vulnerable district, but MNSD11 was won by the DFL in 2016 with 55%.  The northern part of the district is Duluth suburbs, all with a deep blue slant.  Walz should have the ability to choose whomever he wants for his Administration, not just Democrats from safe Democratic districts, but even so, this was a district the Democrats have held for a LONG time.  It was supposedly a safe DFL seat.

The Duluth News Tribune chimed in on the race, misrepresenting the Republican as the union choice.  The Republican, Jason Rarick had a total of four union endorsements, while his opponent, Stu Lourey, the son of the outgoing Senator Tony Lourey, had 11 listed on his website alone, nearly three times as many.  Regardless, the Duluth News Tribune presented Rarick as the union choice, a characterization (along with their gushing endorsement) which helped the Republicans.

I do think there was a level of burnout on the Lourey family holding that seat.  Tony Lourey won the seat after his mother Becky Lourey decided not to run again in 2006.  She initially won her seat in 1990.  It does become somewhat of a head scratcher how the local DFL'ers didn't see the potential danger of a single family trying to hold onto a seat for 30 years, but then again, the name had been successful for a long time.

The limited union support the Republican got also hurt the Minnesota DFL.  The pro-Rarick unions seemed to be out in force door knocking for the Republican in SD11, negating other unions who were door knocking for the DFL.  If you're like me, you might be scratching you head trying to figure out how ANY union would support a Republican in this day and age, especially considering their goal is to wipe out all unions.  I talked with one of the union heads on my radio show and he defended the union's decision.  His main point has the most validity; the union voted to endorse the Republican, and union management won't stop what membership wants.  That's fair.  It's crazy to see people vote for their own firing squad, but if they want to, it's on them.

The union head said he had assurances from Rarick he would not push legislation which would outright destroy unions (such as Right To Work), but Rarick expressed this after he stated on a 2014 Chamber questionnaire he'd work to destroy the unions if he got the chance.  At best he's lying and/or inconsistent (hence untrustworthy), AND he does represent the Republicans, who've single handedly brought unions to their knees over the last 40 years.  The Republicans want to kill all unions and all workers rights.  That's their policy, and their proud of it!  I feel endorsing an inconsistent Republican because they'll 'think about whether or not they'll kill your union' is a risk you shouldn't take.

The union could've endorsed the Democrat, the candidate who'd preserve the union guaranteed, someone looking to strengthen unions, make sure workers make a good salary, good benefits and good healthcare, but they picked unicorns and rainbows.  My guess; there are a lot of people in the union who 'relate' to what the MAGA hat really represents.  All they were looking for was the barest minimum of assurances their Republican vote was a flimsy sliver of 'pro-union.'  I'll be paying attention to Rarick's voting record to determine how 'pro-union' he really is.

But at the end of the day, the weather, false anti-nepotism, the Duluth News Tribune and the minority of unions didn't cost the Democrats MNSD11.  The Democrats did.

You may dislike Republicans, but one thing they do which I respect is vote.  They ALWAYS vote.  Sure, their true motivations might be draped in an ugliness veil, but they show up every election, no matter if it's presidential, off year, odd year, local, school board, or special.  They always do.  What decides elections today is one simple metric:  How many Democrats show up.  What happened in MNSD11 reminds me a heck of a lot of the Bloomington area MN House special election from a few years back, where the Republicans picked up a seat in a +10 Democratic district, mainly because the Democrats were non-existent.

Democrats have a really bad habit.  When they finally do show up for an election, they become enamored in the victory celebration, lavishing themselves with self induced pats on the backs, as they bask in the blue ribbon they've anointed themselves.  They imagine their victory as the end of the movie, marching heads high into the distance, arm in arm with all the rest of the Democrats who showed up, and...roll credits!  Same exact thing happened in 2008.  As the Democrats were celebrating, 2010 happened, dooming this country to ten years of darkness.

The Democrats all showed up in 2018.  It was a tremendous showing, one which destroyed the fixed game the Republicans had created.  The MNSD11 race was the first test of this supposed newfound Democratic political resurgence, and we failed miserably.  No one cared. No one showed up. There was no urgency.  There was no fire.  The Democrats were still patting themselves on the back, impressing themselves with tales of 2018, as they created new social media memes to crack themselves up.  In turn they ignored an easy lay up of a victory.

Meanwhile the Republicans convinced a few unions to fight for them, got 'help' from a newspaper who misinterpreted reality, and banked on Democrats staying at home, which they did!  Expect this same exact strategy to be played out over the next two years.

Democrats, this is not a one time deal.  This is not a feel good movie.  This is not a 'one and done' situation.  This is not a 50 meter dash.  It's a lifelong endeavor.  This is EVERY freaking election, no matter how big the race.  If we don't change the Democrat's dynamic at it's core, getting Democrats to act like every one of these elections matter, any gains we made in 2018 will be a faint memory, drowned out by Republicans popping champaign corks for the next 4 years.