Following the Rules

The reason Bernie Sanders lost the 2016 Democratic Nomination process was not super-delegates.  It wasn't.  It was because Sanders did not take the southeastern states seriously.  He didn't.  Hillary Clinton walloped Bernie in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia and North Carolina, all of whom had primaries prior to March 15th of that year.  Clinton's delegate (not super-delegate) lead after those states alone was 640 to 332.

If Bernie had campaigned seriously in those states, taking half the delegates, he probably would've been leading by a few delegates, or at worst only trailing by 10 or so, heading into April's New York and Pennsylvania contests, and June's California and New Jersey battles.  It's my belief Sanders would've won under such a scenario.  Super-delegates didn't cost Sanders the nomination.  His bad game plan did.

When I've brought this point up, Sanders supporters always say the same thing:  "those states shouldn't count towards the nomination because Democrats don't win those states during general elections."  Putting aside the tone deaf nature of Democrats saying a large swath of the United States doesn't matter, an attitude which definitively played a role in Trump's victory, I tell these Sanders supporters their argument is irrelevant because those were the rules when the nomination process started.  Sanders knew he had to compete in those states, and he decided not to. That's on him.

I'm not bringing this up to re-open old wounds, but rather to explain (for about the one millionth time) rules matter, regardless of whether you think they should or shouldn't.  A political candidate not embracing or understanding the rules is on them.  Their supporters/activists railing against the system because of those well established rules is misguided; a major contributor to the divide in the Democratic Party today.  Embrace the rules and don't fight them when they suddenly go against your candidate.

In Rochester yesterday, Erin Murphy, Tim Walz and Rebecca Otto squared off to try to get the Minnesota DFL's endorsement for their individual campaigns to be the DFL nominee for Minnesota Governor.  The endorsement convention, a get together of 1400 Minnesota Democrats chosen in a process which begins on caucus night months earlier, was expected to be tight, with many people thinking US Rep. Tim Walz was the front runner.  That wasn't a sentiment only Walz supporters expressed, but Murphy's supporters had as well, telling me prior to the convention (paraphrasing) "It'd be nice to win the nomination, but the real contest is going to be August's primary, which Murphy is committed to winning."  They implied they thought they wouldn't win the endorsement at the Convention.

Tim Walz won the first ballot with Murphy in 2nd and Otto in third.  When the second ballot was cast, many of Otto's supporters had moved to Murphy, putting her in the lead.  It was at that point, unless Otto threw her vocal support to Walz, Murphy was either going to win the endorsement or there would be no endorsement.  Eventually Walz withdrew, Murphy won the DFL endorsement, and then self induced chaos once again enveloped the Minnesota Democrats.

After the second ballot, some Murphy supporters started taking to social media waging an opinion war against Walz.  'How dare he not concede immediately, withdraw from the race, and hand Murphy all his money and supporters!  Is he staying to help the Republicans?  HOW DARE HE!'  Mind you, this was prior to the endorsement being awarded, after Murphy took her first lead.  It only got nastier from there.  The two Murphy supporters who had preached about the need for a primary two days earlier were now insisting a primary would be anti-DFL.  After Walz withdrew, and Murphy won the endorsement, the howls from Murphy supporters demanding Walz quit grew louder, with the hashtag #NoPrimary starting to show up in social media posts.  I turned it all off when I saw a Walz supporter state, after getting bitterly harassed by Murphy supporters, he wouldn't vote for Murphy even if she was the eventual DFL nominee.

Mission Accomplished Democrats.  We're well on our way to grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

The rules state any established DFL candidate who wants to go to the primary can.  That's it; those are the rules!  Walz and Otto are well within their right to have the nomination go to a primary.  The purpose of the primary is highlighted this year.  You didn't have a concrete victory for Murphy; the endorsement came after Walz and his supporters withdrew.  Now you let the Democrats statewide make the decisions as a whole.  Having 1400 caucus awardees determine the DFL candidate only works when 70+% of them solidly unite behind a single candidate, or when a candidate doesn't decide to skip the convention outright and go straight to the primary (like Dayton did in 2010.  How did that work again?)

Let me break down the race a little bit.

I consider Erin Murphy a friend.  When I met her 6 years ago I immediately saw the potential.  She needed to be in a higher office.  She's run a great campaign so far, but she desperately needs to spend the next two months out of the Twin Cities.  When I talk to outstate Democrats, she's perceived as a Minneapolis/St. Paul Democrat only, a dynamic she needs to change if she's going to win the primary, AND win in the general election.  And although I think Erin Maye Quade is sensational, her being Murphy's choice to be Lt. Gov. is only going to solidify outstate Minnesota's perception Murphy's a Twin Cities first candidate.  Time to hit the road, Erin.

Rebecca Otto and I have talked at least a dozen times, during both radio interviews and at the Blue State Ball.  She was such a good State Auditor, Republicans waged an all out war on her office to stop her from catching their buddies from cheating the taxpayers.  She did a great job of solidifying support within the Bernie Sanders/Progressive side of the Party, but in the end it was the smaller third of the pie.  I don't think she should change her pitch, but rather realize her role at this point; she has a lot to say about the primary's outcome.

Tim Walz is a great moderate Democrat.  In my first interview with him, he gave a sensational response to why we need food assistance for the needy more than ever.  He's also been a leader on veteran's issues, a topic the Democrats need a lot more of.  After the results of the voting on Saturday, it's clear Walz needs to focus on shoring up union support, and not just on the Iron Range, but in the metro area as well.  The nurses are firmly in Murphy's corner, but where as the organizations might endorse Murphy, the individual voter is what counts in a primary.

If it's not clear by what I just wrote, come the general election:

• Murphy (specifically) and Otto will need Walz to win outstate voters, and some more rural suburbs.
• Otto and Walz will need Murphy to help carry the working class and union voters.
• Walz and Murphy will both need Otto to carry the progressive Sanders side of the DFL.

I understand Murphy is scared she will be 'Kelliher-ed,' a reference to when Margaret Anderson Kelliher won the DFL nomination at the convention in 2010, only to lose in the primary to a well funded Mark Dayton who squeaked past Kelliher.  As with Dayton, a primary doesn't mean the Democrats won't win in November, it just means the candidates need to work harder at appealing to their base, resulting in the best candidate being picked by all of Minnesota's DFL'ers.  And the option of a primary prevents having a convention result where outstate Democrats feel like the metro area is forcing a candidate upon them.  Walz (and possibly Otto) taking this to a primary will be good for the party, and Murphy can feel good about being the frontrunner heading into August's vote.

I think all three candidates, Murphy, Walz and Otto would make a great Governor.  I'm not picking sides, although I have zero doubt some will read this and try their hardest to label me pro-something. If it makes you feel better, fine.  I just don't want to see a party who is poised to sweep the state elections repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot.

I wish all candidates coming out of the convention would make the same statements:

Winner - "We won the endorsement, and we'll win the primary too, setting up our win in November!"
Losers - "We didn't win today, but we'll win in the primary and carry that momentum to November."

Don't tell me who I shouldn't vote for.  Don't tell me why the other Democrat is evil because they dared to play by the rules.  If you didn't like the rules, then you shouldn't have played the game.  By demanding no primary, all you're doing is blowing up the foundation of the house before you start building.

Instead, tell us all why we should vote for YOU.  That's leadership; leadership we all can get behind.